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Extreme Weather Events in the UK and TAG 13 updates

Date released
22 September 2020
Request number
202007024
Release of information under
Freedom of Information Act 2000

Information requested

With regard to understanding the minutes of the 31st March 2020 meeting we need to have sight of the three Annex Papers mentioned at the bottom of Page 6 on Extreme Weather Events in the UK and TAG 13 updates.

Information released

The references to which you refer to as listed in the 31 March 2020 minutes of the Expert Panel on Natural Hazards – Meteorological and Coastal Flood Hazards Sub-Panel are:

  • Extreme Weather Events in the UK - EP Paper and review document.
  • Annex 2 Expert Panel Papers – edits and suggested edits.
  • Annex 3 Expert Panel Paper – edits.

To clarify, these three references above refer to five papers that were shared with the Expert Panel, as explained further under each item below:

  • Item 1 (two papers) – The first paper is the draft ‘Extreme Weather Events in the UK’ research paper and the second paper is a document containing edits from a member of the Expert Panel on the draft ‘Extreme Weather Events in the UK’ paper.
  • Item 2 (two papers) – Both papers contain updates to Annex 2 of the External Hazards Technical Assessment Guide (TAG 13) NS-TAST-GD-013: Meteorological Hazards.
  • Item 3 (one paper) – This paper contains an update to Annex 3 of the External Hazards TAG 13 (NS-TAST-GD-013): Coastal Flood Hazards.

I confirm that under Section 1 of the FOIA, we hold the information related to your request. However, we are refusing your request under Section 22 (Information intended for future publication) of the FOIA.

We have considered whether it is reasonable in all circumstances to withhold the information from disclosure. After careful consideration, we believe it is, as at the time your request was received, the information listed in items 1, 2 and 3 above was already intended for future publication with dates planned.

1. Extreme Weather Events in the UK – EP Paper and review document.

These papers are part of our scheduled research programme, listed in our publicly available Regulatory Research Register under item ONR-RRR-055.  Further details of the status of this work were also provided in Section 4 of the 31 March 2020 Sub-Panel on Meteorological and Coastal Flood Hazards meeting minutes. For ease, please find them attached.

At the time of your request, there was already a scheduled publication date (end of December 2020); subject to a successful acceptance review and internal document clearance. Once these checks are completed the information will be published on our research pages: ONR Research.

The paper explores to what extent the UK is experiencing more frequent extreme weather events and will also advise on future work. This will contribute to ensuring that our inspectors form their regulatory judgements confidently and effectively, using sound, up to date scientific and technical information. Due to the importance of this work and the importance of internal review ahead of publication, it is unreasonable to all concerned to bring forward the publication. To do so would be outside of our accepted publication practices and the information will be available via our publication scheme at the end of the year.

2. Annex 2 Expert Panel Papers – edits and suggested edits.

3. Annex 3 Expert Panel Paper – edits.

With respect to items 2) and 3), these papers are draft edits to the current Expert Panel papers on meteorological and coastal flooding hazards.

These documents are authored by the Expert Panel and are part of the suite of documents that support the main head document External Hazards Technical Assessment Guide (NS-TAST-GD-013) (TAG 13) and subsequent annexes. At the time of your request, there was already a scheduled publication date for publication of these updated documents.

As I am sure you will appreciate, maintaining this suite of eight documents is a significant and important task, with multiple interfaces. The diagram below sets out where the Expert Panel papers sit within the wider suite of documents, we hope you find this helpful. Our planned publication schedule allows the Expert Panel members time to provide advice and interpretation of current relevant good practice to inform the updates. 

Diagram setting out where the Expert Panel papers sit within the wider suite of documents

Due to their current and early stage of development, it is unreasonable to all concerned to bring forward the publication as it would be outside of our accepted publication practices for Technical Assessment Guides. The documents are scheduled to be published via our publication scheme in October 2021 following a period of peer review. We have given further explanation within the public interest test below which I trust helps to explain why we are unable to disclose this information at this time.

Public Interest Test – Section 22 (Information intended for future publication)

We consider that the information requested falls within the category of information intended for future publication and believe it is exempt from disclosure under Section 22 of the FOIA. As this is a qualified exemption, we are required to balance the public interest between disclosure and non-disclosure. We have therefore considered the Public Interest Test, as set out below:

Factors for disclosure:

  • Issues related to the nuclear industry, external hazards and climate change are subject to close scrutiny and debate, there is a public interest in information related to these activities and the release of such information.
  • The level of public interest in this topic means there is a demand for information on how we are using research to inform our regulation. 
  • Use of the exemption provides no further information to the public and represents a frustration of our policy of openness and transparency.

Factors against disclosure:

  • For information related to item 1), it is in the public interest to allow researchers to complete their planned programme of research and to undertake a period of peer review to finalise their findings before the work is made publically available as part of a scheduled programme. At the time of the request, this information was scheduled for publication by the end of December 2020 and will be available to view via the Regulatory Research pages of our website ONR Research.   
  • For information related to items 2) and 3), the release of this in advance of formal peer review could lead to confusion in the public sphere. The External Hazards Technical Assessment Guide (NS-TAST-GD-013) head document, the supporting four Annexes 1-4 and three Expert Panel Papers remain current and are all scheduled to be revised as part of a wider programme of work to update the full suite of documents, and are set to be published as part of our publication scheme by October 2021. Peer review and scrutiny of other experts in the same field to assess the validity and to evaluate its suitability for publication is important for information of this nature and should not be rushed.

Conclusion:

Having taken all of these factors into account we have concluded that it is not in the public interest to release this information at this stage given that the documents are currently in draft format and are scheduled to be published on our website once finalised as part of our publication scheme. Given the necessary preparation involved in publishing the information, it is reasonable in all the circumstances that the information should be withheld from disclosure until planned publication.

Further information:

As you are aware, a significant element of the updates are related to the publication of UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) released in November 2018. We will shortly be publishing an updated position statement on our website in advance of the wider update to the suite of documents and will notify you of this update accordingly.

Exemptions applied

Section 22

PIT (Public Interest Test) if applicable

N/A